Short-Term Swing Ideas: Week of August 15

Two of three ideas did their job this week. The third one is still waiting, and that is also the job.

We published three short-term swing ideas on August 12. By Friday’s close, PEP had confirmed its trigger, CVNA had confirmed its trigger, and LLY had not. Nobody hit a first target. Nobody hit a stop. That is a clean first week: two trades on, one still a level, and zero reason to rewrite the plan.

The scoreboard

PEP: Triggered. Confirmed Thursday, August 13, with a $140.62 close above the $139.50 trigger. Friday close: $140.79. First target $148.00 still overhead. Stop $133.00 intact.

CVNA: Triggered. Confirmed Friday, August 14, with a $75.59 close above the $74.56 reclaim. Thursday tagged $74.84 and closed $73.70, which is exactly why the original idea required a close, not a wick. First target $97.38 still overhead. Stop $60.12 intact.

LLY: Waiting. Week high $1,240.10. Never closed above $1,250, never even printed the $1,249.45 all-time high. Friday close: $1,180.16. Stop near $1,100 intact. The base is still a base.

PEP: the $139.50 close showed up on Thursday

The original idea was a reversal, not a hope candle. Trigger was a confirmed close above $139.50. On August 12, the day we published, PEP closed $138.70, still one close short. Thursday opened $139.41, pushed to $140.83, and closed $140.62. That is the trigger. Friday held the reclaim and closed $140.79 on a $140.12 low, so the first session after the trigger did not immediately fail.

Status: in the trade, early. $148.00 is the first target, not $160.75. Do not start treating a $1.30 cushion above the trigger like the reversal is finished. The stop stays $133.00 until the first target is actually in play. Original idea: PEP (PepsiCo) Short-Term Swing Trade Idea.

CVNA: Thursday was the wick. Friday was the close.

The original idea said a confirmed close above $74.56, not an intraday poke. Thursday printed $74.84 and closed $73.70. That is the trap. Friday opened $73.82, ran to $76.07, and closed $75.59. That is the trigger. The reclaim is one session old. $97.38 is still more than $20 away.

Status: in the trade, early. If Friday’s close fails next week and price closes back below $74.56, the reclaim is not a reclaim anymore. That is already written in the original invalidation. Do not average down to defend a one-day close. Original idea: CVNA (Carvana) Short-Term Swing Trade Idea: The $97 Reclaim.

LLY: the $1,250 door never opened

The original idea was a breakout above $1,250, the same zone as the $1,249.45 all-time high. This week never got there. Monday tagged $1,231.94. Thursday tagged $1,240.10. Friday sold off to $1,171.20 and closed $1,180.16. That is a pullback inside the base, not a failed breakout, because there was no breakout. A failed breakout requires a close above $1,250 that then fails. We did not get the first half of that sentence.

Status: waiting. Thesis intact. The stop is still just under $1,100. The $1,180 close is farther from the door than the $1,220 area we published from, which makes chasing it worse, not better. Below $1,250 there is nothing to do. Original idea: LLY (Eli Lilly) Short-Term Swing Trade Idea.

The lesson this week actually taught

Two triggers in three days is not a reason to size up. One wait is not a reason to abandon the level. CVNA’s Thursday wick is the whole point of writing “confirmed close” in the original post. If you bought that wick, you were early on a trade that showed up one session later. If you waited, you got the same idea with the rule intact.

LLY is the other half of the same lesson. Sitting under an all-time high and then pulling back is what a range does. It is not invalidation. Invalidation is a failed close above $1,250 after multiple attempts, or a break of the $1,100 stop. One week of not triggering is just one week of not triggering.

If you have not nailed down how you size a triggered idea versus a waiting idea, that is the whole game. The Risk Management Mastery series is the place to tighten that up before next week’s scoreboard.

Takeaway: PEP is on. CVNA is on. LLY is waiting. First targets and stops did not move because two ideas worked. This update is a journal entry, not a new thesis. Next week we score the same levels again.