Two breakouts fired, one target got hit, and one reclaim just told us it was not a reclaim.
Six ideas are live across three posts: LLY, PEP, and CVNA from August 12, plus V, MA, and MRK from August 15. Friday’s close gave us two brand-new triggers, one target hit, and one invalidation. That is the entire point of running six ideas at once instead of one: the market does not hand out six identical outcomes, it hands out six different lessons in the same week.
The scoreboard
LLY: Triggered. Friday close $1,255.40 (+0.88%), confirming the close above $1,250. Stop $1,103.51. Primary target $1,400, stretch $2,000.
PEP: Still in the trade, working. Friday close $143.48 (+0.99%). Stop $133.00. First target $148.00, about $4.52 away. Stretch $160.75.
CVNA: Invalidated. Friday close $69.91 (-2.25%), closing back below the $74.56 reclaim level. Full stop $60.12 untouched.
V: Still waiting. Friday close $371.04 (+1.45%), about $4.67 under the $375.71 trigger. Stop $357.69, target $421.62.
MA: Triggered. Friday close $580.63 (+1.18%), confirming the close above $569.29. Stop $554.91, target $601.77 (all-time high), about $21 away.
MRK: First target hit. Friday close $152.55 (+2.39%), clearing the $149.84 first target. Original stop $125.92, runner target $207.
LLY: the door finally opened
The original idea needed a confirmed close above $1,250, the same zone as the old $1,249.45 all-time high. Friday delivered it: a $1,271.22 high, a $1,230.00 low, and a $1,255.40 close, up 0.88% on the day and comfortably through the level. One close is one close, not three, but the level that mattered for two straight weeks is now behind price instead of in front of it.
Status: triggered, early. The stop stays at $1,103.51 until price proves otherwise; do not tighten it just because the level finally cleared. $1,400 is the first target, not the stretch. Original idea: LLY (Eli Lilly) Short-Term Swing Trade Idea.
PEP: no drama, which is the point
PEP triggered back on August 13 and has done nothing but hold since. Friday printed a $143.56 high, a $141.64 low, and a $143.48 close, up 0.99%. That puts price about $4.52 from the $148.00 first target with the $133.00 stop never threatened. This is what a working idea is supposed to look like: unremarkable.
Status: in the trade, unchanged. $148.00 is still the first target, not the stretch at $160.75. Stop stays $133.00. Original idea: PEP (PepsiCo) Short-Term Swing Trade Idea.
CVNA: the reclaim just stopped being a reclaim
The original post was explicit about this exact scenario: “if price closes back below $74.56, the reclaim is not a reclaim anymore.” Friday closed at $69.91, down 2.25%, on a $72.06 high and a $69.19 low — more than $4.50 back under the level that confirmed the trade on August 14. That is not a wick, it is a close, which is the only thing this thesis was ever built to respect. Per the rule written into the original idea, this reclaim is invalidated.
Status: invalidated. The full stop at $60.12 was never hit, and it does not need to be for this idea to be done — the thesis was the reclaim holding, and the reclaim did not hold. This is not a reason to hold and hope for $60.12 to save the trade; the rule that ended it was written in the original post before the trade even triggered. Original idea: CVNA (Carvana) Short-Term Swing Trade Idea: The $97 Reclaim.
V: still the one waiting
V remains the most patient idea of the six. Friday closed at $371.04, up 1.45%, on a $371.80 high and a $366.66 low — still about $4.67 under the $375.71 breakout trigger. Close, but a close call is still a level that has not printed.
Status: waiting. Thesis intact, nothing to do below $375.71. Being close to a level is not the same as being in the trade. Original idea: V (Visa) Short-Term Swing Trade Idea: The $422 Breakout.
MA: the second breakout of the week
MA confirmed its own flag breakout on Friday, closing at $580.63, up 1.18%, on a $582.28 high and a $573.04 low — through the $569.29 trigger. The target here is the $601.77 all-time high, about $21 away, at roughly 2.3:1 with no stretch target attached; this was always meant to be a cleaner, shorter idea than LLY or PEP.
Status: triggered, early. $601.77 is the only target on this one — there is no stretch to get greedy about. Stop stays $554.91. Original idea: MA (Mastercard) Short-Term Swing Trade Idea: The $601 Breakout.
MRK: first target down, one to go
MRK is the one idea that is now partially done its job. Friday closed at $152.55, up 2.39%, on a $154.49 high and a $148.59 low — clearing the $149.84 first target. The original stop was $125.92 and the runner target sits at $207. Hitting a first target is a decision point, not a finish line: trail, take partial profit, or let the runner run, but do not just leave the original stop sitting where it was set for a trade that has not yet earned anything back.
Status: first target hit, runner live. If you have not decided in advance how you handle a hit target, decide now, not while staring at the fill. Original idea: MRK (Merck) Short-Term Swing Trade Idea.
The lesson this week actually taught
Two breakouts triggering the same week is not a signal to celebrate the strategy; it is just two levels that happened to clear on the same Friday. The lesson that matters is CVNA. The original post wrote the invalidation rule down before the trade even triggered, which is the only reason today’s call is clean instead of emotional. Nobody has to guess whether $69.91 is “close enough” to still count, because the rule was never close-enough — it was a specific number, written in advance, with no room to negotiate after the fact.
MRK is the other half of the lesson. A hit target feels like a win, and it is, but it is also a decision you should have made before the fill, not after. If your plan for a hit target is “figure it out when it happens,” that is not a plan, that is hope with better vocabulary.
If your process for handling stops, targets, and invalidation levels is not written down before you take the trade, that is the actual gap — not your win rate. The Risk Management Mastery series is where to fix that before next week’s scoreboard.
Takeaway: LLY and MA triggered. PEP keeps working. MRK banked its first target. V is still waiting. CVNA is invalidated, and the only reason that call was easy is because it was made in writing three weeks ago. This update is a journal entry, not a new thesis. Next week we score the same levels again.
